Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

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The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian earth system model ([1]) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter ([2]) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM ([3]), but that used different Aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model ( evolve from the MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using the covariance matrix from a Monte-carlo model integration.

Coming here:

• NorCPM description (see e.g. ROMS description)
• contact information
• other?

Prediction activities

The optimal goal is to test the capability of our system on disparate phase of the climate in order to gain confidence on the robustnes of its accuracy. SST is the only observational data set available for a period of time sufficient (> 100 years) to clearly demonstrate skill for decadal prediction.

Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations with real SST data

The observational data set used so far is the ensemble of SST data (refereed as HADISST2), which provide monthly SST for 1850--2007 with 10 members. Each member reconstructs SST using a different set of possible estimate of unknown parameter. At term we intend to perform retrospective decadal prediction (hindcast) over the last century, but here we have decided to focus on a shorter period (1980-2005) first as there are many independent observation during this period of time. Following is a table that summarise the different experiment run so far:

Multiplication table

Name on Norstore	NorESM version	observation	ens size	full_field/anom	ocean var updated	post process	Masked coast	localisation	Atmo nudging	Prediction	Finished/Ongoing	Remark
First Try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	all	fixenkf	yes	point	no	1990,1992,1995,1996	Finished	minor bug in EnKF, small drift in MSL, good SPG
Second_Try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	all	fixenkf	yes	point	no	1995	Finished	small drift in MSL, good SPG
Third Try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	T and S	fixenkf	yes	point	no	none	Finished	weak SPG in reanalysis
Fourth Try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	T and S and Barot.	micomserial	yes	point	no	1995	Finished	unrealistic
Fifth Try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	all	micom_serial	yes	point	no	none	Finished	very mild improvement compare to second
ME	F19_G16	SST	30	anom	all	micom_serial	yes	point	no	no	ongoing	??
Yiguo_try	F19_tn21	SST	30	anom	All(superlayer)	micom_serial	yes	point	no	no	ongoing	??
FF_ini_try	F19_tn21	SST	30	full	all	micom_serial	yes	point	no	no	Finished	??

Projects using NorCPM

PRACTICE, EPOCASA, PREFACE, INCREASE

Publications, etc.

Peer-review

• Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074

User Resources

• NorCPM User Manual
• NorCPM quick-start tutorial

Working group

• Meeting minutes of working group