Norcpm - User contributions [en]

Meeting minutes of working group

2016-04-25T23:29:00Z

Nke023:

== '''Meetings in 2016'''==

== '''Meeting April 26, 2016
'''==

Agenda

- Update from those present on prediction activities

-- Seasonal prediction, comparison MPI and NorCPM

- Data storage issues

- Reporting in CRISTIN

== '''Pre-2016''' ==

== '''Meeting Oct 2nd, 2014
''' ==

Updates and plans
-Francois: Has begun assimilation with the ME version of NorESM; He will do some tests on the impact of more frequent than monthly assimilation cycles

- Mao-Lin: Has been testing full field assimilation with SST. He will perform start an assimilation for the period 1980 till present

- Yigou: testing super layer assimilation scheme in NorCPM

- Yvan/Retish: Completing a paper on the impact of snow initialisation in the ECMWF system on the 2009 forecast; They have started to think about assimilating land surface and will visit Bergen for more detailed discussions with Francois.

- Thomas: He will start work on atmospheric nudging, so that it can be incorporated into the full field assimilation and for assimilating land surface data

- Shunya: He will continue analysis of the F19_g16 runs and also of the ME runs performed by Ingo

- Teferi: Has been analysing the bias development in ECEARTH prediction experiments, and doing some test with NorCPM

We discussed CMIP6, and I have written the following email to Mats:

''I read quickly through the part of the document relating to DCPP. And although Ingo is away this week, several of us discussed participating. Firstly, it should be recognized that the number of runs being requested is substantial (Ensemble predictions, started once per year, from 1960, and for 5-10 year duration). At the moment we do not have the resources to complete this exercise. Nevertheless, we are interested to be involved to some degree. I would hope to be involved in the final design of such experiments before committing ourselves. So I think you can indicate our interest.''

'''Next meeting is scheduled for November 13th from 14:00-16:00
'''

== '''Meeting Sep 5th, 2014
''' ==

Thank you for the meeting. I found it very useful. Here is a short summary. Please correct if needed.

- Francois to provide sea ice data to Retish so that we can have a quick assessment of sea ice in the analysis (I am not sure if this necessary anymore)

- Yvan and Retish will focus on a method to initialize snow in NorCPM.

- Ingo will make available data from the high-top control run that Nour-Eddine can analyse when he visits later in September

- Next Thursday, 11th of September, from 10-12, Francois will give an introduction to using NorCPM. I have sent an email to Berit to book the conference room, and also to support-uib to add Shunya to the NorESM unix group

- Ingo will check about ESMF library and get in touch with Retish

- Thomas will provide the source mods for the energy bug fix

- I have just called NorStore about disk space. I think we will get a 10TB increase, but I am waiting for confirmation

- I have written to Mahaut for EPOCASA wiki page

'''In terms of strategies:
'''

- We agreed that high-top runs would be tested in Oslo for initialization of chemistry in prescribed SST runs

- High-top model needs some tuning, and Nour-Eddine can help with assessing model performance

- In Bergen (Mao-Lin, Shunya, Thomas, Teferi) we will begin work on full field initialisation, atmospheric nudging, and flux correction. We will use the low-top model using energy bug fix.

- In Bergen, more tests are ongoing with Yigou new approach to avoid the problems with neg DP, and with the NorESM1 version

'''Our next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, 2nd of October, from 13-15.
'''

Meeting minutes of working group

2016-04-25T23:28:24Z

Nke023:

Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

2016-04-25T23:27:43Z

Nke023: /* Projects using NorCPM */

'''[[Wiki development | PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE EDITING]]'''

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM, [https://wiki.met.no/noresm/start]) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_Kalman_filter]) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Climate_System_Model]), but uses different aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model (evolved from MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using a covariance matrix procuded by a Monte-Carlo ensemble integration. Currently the system only intend to update the ocean part as this is where most of the predictability is expected, but additional atmospheric nudging and assimilation of land variables are also considered.

== News ==

== Model releases ==

== Prediction activities ==
The optimal goal is to test the capability of our system on disparate phase of the climate in order to gain confidence on the robustnes of its accuracy. SST is the only observational data set available for a period of time sufficient (> 100 years) to clearly demonstrate skill for decadal prediction. Ideally a start date every 5 years seems achievable.

=== Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data ===

=== Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations with real SST data ===
The observational data set used so far is the ensemble of SST data (refereed as HADISST2), which provide monthly SST for 1850--2007 with 10 members. Each member reconstructs SST using a different set of possible unknown parameters.
At term we intend to perform retrospective reanalysis and decadal prediction (hindcast) over the last century, but here we have decided to focus on a shorter period (1980-2005) because the system is still premature and there are many independent observations during this period of time.
== Existing runs ==
Following is a table that summarise the different experiment run so far:
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|+Multiplication table
|-
! Name on Norstore !! NorESM version !! observation !! ens size !! Freq assim|| full_field/anom !! ocean var updated !! post process !! Masked coast !! localisation !! Atmo nudging !! Prediction !! Finished/Ongoing !! Remark
|-
! First_Try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly|| anom || all || fixenkf || yes || point || no || 1990,1992,1995,1996 || Finished || minor bug in EnKF, small drift in MSL, good SPG
|-
! Second_Try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly|| anom || all || fixenkf || yes || point || no || 1995 || Finished || small drift in MSL, good SPG
|-
! Third_Try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly || anom || T and S || fixenkf || yes || point || no || none || Finished || weak SPG in reanalysis
|-
! Fourth_Try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly || anom || T and S and Barot. || micomserial || yes || point || no || none || Finished || unrealistic
|-
! Fifth_Try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly || anom || all || micom_serial || yes || point || no || 1995 || Finished || very mild improvement compare to second
|-
! ME
| F19_G16 || SST || 30 || monthly || anom || all || micom_serial || yes || point || no || no || ongoing || ??
|-
! Yiguo_try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly || anom || All(superlayer) || micom_serial || yes || point || no || no || ongoing || ??
|-
! FF_ini_try
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || monthly || full || all || micom_serial || yes || point || no || April and November prediction from 1981 to 2007 || Finished || ??
|}

== Projects using NorCPM ==

'''Current'''

EPOCASA, PREFACE, INCREASE, PARADIGM, STERCP, ARCPATH

'''Past'''

PRACTICE

== Publications, etc. ==

'''Peer-review'''

* [http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/21074 Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074]

'''Presentations'''

* NorCPM talk at the joint MiKlip/Specs meeting in Offenbach 24.-25. Feb 2015 [[Media:BethkeEtAl_MiklipSpecsMeeting2015.pdf|(pdf)]]

== User Resources ==

* [[NorCPM User Manual]]

== Working group ==

*[[Meeting minutes of working group ]]

== Contact informations ==
Noel.Keenlyside@gfi.uib.no (leader); ingo.bethke@uni.no (NorESM related question); francois.counillon@nersc.no (EnKF related question); maolin.shen@gfi.uib.no (atmospheric nudging related question)

Meeting minutes of working group

2014-10-09T19:27:06Z

Nke023:

== '''Meeting Oct 2nd, 2014
''' ==

Updates and plans
-Francois: Has begun assimilation with the ME version of NorESM; He will do some tests on the impact of more frequent than monthly assimilation cycles

- Mao-Lin: Has been testing full field assimilation with SST. He will perform start an assimilation for the period 1980 till present

- Yigou: testing super layer assimilation scheme in NorCPM

- Yvan/Retish: Completing a paper on the impact of snow initialisation in the ECMWF system on the 2009 forecast; They have started to think about assimilating land surface and will visit Bergen for more detailed discussions with Francois.

- Thomas: He will start work on atmospheric nudging, so that it can be incorporated into the full field assimilation and for assimilating land surface data

- Shunya: He will continue analysis of the F19_g16 runs and also of the ME runs performed by Ingo

- Teferi: Has been analysing the bias development in ECEARTH prediction experiments, and doing some test with NorCPM

We discussed CMIP6, and I have written the following email to Mats:

''I read quickly through the part of the document relating to DCPP. And although Ingo is away this week, several of us discussed participating. Firstly, it should be recognized that the number of runs being requested is substantial (Ensemble predictions, started once per year, from 1960, and for 5-10 year duration). At the moment we do not have the resources to complete this exercise. Nevertheless, we are interested to be involved to some degree. I would hope to be involved in the final design of such experiments before committing ourselves. So I think you can indicate our interest.''

'''Next meeting is scheduled for November 13th from 14:00-16:00
'''

== '''Meeting Sep 5th, 2014
''' ==

Thank you for the meeting. I found it very useful. Here is a short summary. Please correct if needed.

- Francois to provide sea ice data to Retish so that we can have a quick assessment of sea ice in the analysis (I am not sure if this necessary anymore)

- Yvan and Retish will focus on a method to initialize snow in NorCPM.

- Ingo will make available data from the high-top control run that Nour-Eddine can analyse when he visits later in September

- Next Thursday, 11th of September, from 10-12, Francois will give an introduction to using NorCPM. I have sent an email to Berit to book the conference room, and also to support-uib to add Shunya to the NorESM unix group

- Ingo will check about ESMF library and get in touch with Retish

- Thomas will provide the source mods for the energy bug fix

- I have just called NorStore about disk space. I think we will get a 10TB increase, but I am waiting for confirmation

- I have written to Mahaut for EPOCASA wiki page

'''In terms of strategies:
'''

- We agreed that high-top runs would be tested in Oslo for initialization of chemistry in prescribed SST runs

- High-top model needs some tuning, and Nour-Eddine can help with assessing model performance

- In Bergen (Mao-Lin, Shunya, Thomas, Teferi) we will begin work on full field initialisation, atmospheric nudging, and flux correction. We will use the low-top model using energy bug fix.

- In Bergen, more tests are ongoing with Yigou new approach to avoid the problems with neg DP, and with the NorESM1 version

'''Our next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, 2nd of October, from 13-15.
'''

Meeting minutes of working group

2014-10-03T16:40:25Z

Nke023:

== '''Meeting Oct 2nd, 2014
''' ==

Updates and plans
-Francois: Has begun assimilation with the ME version of NorESM; He will do some tests on the impact of more frequent than monthly assimilation cycles

- Mao-Lin: Has been testing full field assimilation with SST. He will perform start an assimilation for the period 1980 till present

- Yigou: testing super layer assimilation scheme in NorCPM

- Yvan/Retish: Completing a paper on the impact of snow initialisation in the ECMWF system on the 2009 forecast; They have started to think about assimilating land surface and will visit Bergen for more detailed discussions with Francois.

- Thomas: He will start work on atmospheric nudging, so that it can be incorporated into the full field assimilation and for assimilating land surface data

- Shunya: He will continue analysis of the F19_g16 runs and also of the ME runs performed by Ingo

We discussed CMIP6, and I have written the following email to Mats:

''I read quickly through the part of the document relating to DCPP. And although Ingo is away this week, several of us discussed participating. Firstly, it should be recognized that the number of runs being requested is substantial (Ensemble predictions, started once per year, from 1960, and for 5-10 year duration). At the moment we do not have the resources to complete this exercise. Nevertheless, we are interested to be involved to some degree. I would hope to be involved in the final design of such experiments before committing ourselves. So I think you can indicate our interest.''

'''Next meeting is scheduled for November 13th from 13:00-15:00
'''

== '''Meeting Sep 5th, 2014
''' ==

Thank you for the meeting. I found it very useful. Here is a short summary. Please correct if needed.

- Francois to provide sea ice data to Retish so that we can have a quick assessment of sea ice in the analysis (I am not sure if this necessary anymore)

- Yvan and Retish will focus on a method to initialize snow in NorCPM.

- Ingo will make available data from the high-top control run that Nour-Eddine can analyse when he visits later in September

- Next Thursday, 11th of September, from 10-12, Francois will give an introduction to using NorCPM. I have sent an email to Berit to book the conference room, and also to support-uib to add Shunya to the NorESM unix group

- Ingo will check about ESVM library and get in touch with Retish

- Thomas will provide the source mods for the energy bug fix

- I have just called NorStore about disk space. I think we will get a 10TB increase, but I am waiting for confirmation

- I have written to Mahaut for EPOCASA wiki page

'''In terms of strategies:
'''

- We agreed that high-top runs would be tested in Oslo for initialization of chemistry in prescribed SST runs

- High-top model needs some tuning, and Nour-Eddine can help with assessing model performance

- In Bergen (Mao-Lin, Shunya, Thomas, Teferi) we will begin work on full field initialisation, atmospheric nudging, and flux correction. We will use the low-top model using energy bug fix.

- In Bergen, more tests are ongoing with Yigou new approach to avoid the problems with neg DP, and with the NorESM1 version

'''Our next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, 2nd of October, from 13-15.
'''

Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

2014-10-03T16:37:10Z

Nke023:

'''[[Wiki development | PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE EDITING]]'''

Coming here:
* NorCPM description (see e.g. [https://www.myroms.org ROMS description])
* contact information
* other?

== News ==

== Model releases ==

== Prediction activities ==

=== Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data ===

=== Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations for the Nordic Seas ===

== Data products and diagnostics ==

== Projects using NorCPM ==
EPOCASA

== Publications, etc. ==

'''Peer-review'''

* [http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/21074 Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074]

== User Resources ==

* [[NorCPM User Manual]]
* [[NorCPM quick-start tutorial]]

== Working group ==

*[[Meeting minutes of working group ]]

Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

2014-10-03T16:30:57Z

Nke023:

'''[[Wiki development | PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE EDITING]]'''

Coming here:
* NorCPM description (see e.g. [https://www.myroms.org ROMS description])
* contact information
* other?

== News ==

== Model releases ==

== Prediction activities ==

=== Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data ===

=== Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations for the Nordic Seas ===

== Data products and diagnostics ==

== Projects using NorCPM ==
EPOCASA

== Publications, etc. ==

'''Peer-review'''

* [http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/21074 Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074]

== User Resources ==

== Meeting minutes of working group ==

* [[NorCPM User Manual]]
* [[NorCPM quick-start tutorial]]

Meeting minutes of working group

2014-10-03T16:29:19Z

Nke023: Created page with " == '''Meeting Oct 2nd, 2014 ''' == Updates and plans Francois: Has begun assimilation with the ME version of NorESM; He will do some tests on the impact of more frequent tha..."

== '''Meeting Oct 2nd, 2014
''' ==

Updates and plans
Francois: Has begun assimilation with the ME version of NorESM; He will do some tests on the impact of more frequent than monthly assimilation cycles
Mao-Lin: Has been testing full field assimilation with SST. He will perform start an assimilation for the period 1980 till present
Yigou: testing super layer assimilation scheme in NorCPM
Yvan/Retish: Completing a paper on the impact of snow initialisation in the ECMWF system on the 2009 forecast; They have started to think about assimilating land surface and will visit Bergen for more detailed discussions with Francois.
Thomas: He will start work on atmospheric nudging, so that it can be incorporated into the full field assimilation and for assimilating land surface data
Shunya: He will continue analysis of the F19_g16 runs and also of the ME runs performed by Ingo

We discussed CMIP6, and I have written the following email to Mats:

''I read quickly through the part of the document relating to DCPP. And although Ingo is away this week, several of us discussed participating. Firstly, it should be recognized that the number of runs being requested is substantial (Ensemble predictions, started once per year, from 1960, and for 5-10 year duration). At the moment we do not have the resources to complete this exercise. Nevertheless, we are interested to be involved to some degree. I would hope to be involved in the final design of such experiments before committing ourselves. So I think you can indicate our interest.''

'''Next meeting is scheduled for November 13th from 13:00-15:00
'''

== '''Meeting Sep 5th, 2014
''' ==

Thank you for the meeting. I found it very useful. Here is a short summary. Please correct if needed.

- Francois to provide sea ice data to Retish so that we can have a quick assessment of sea ice in the analysis (I am not sure if this necessary anymore)
- Yvan and Retish will focus on a method to initialize snow in NorCPM.
- Ingo will make available data from the high-top control run that Nour-Eddine can analyse when he visits later in September
- Next Thursday, 11th of September, from 10-12, Francois will give an introduction to using NorCPM. I have sent an email to Berit to book the conference room, and also to support-uib to add Shunya to the NorESM unix group
- Ingo will check about ESVM library and get in touch with Retish
- Thomas will provide the source mods for the energy bug fix
- I have just called NorStore about disk space. I think we will get a 10TB increase, but I am waiting for confirmation
- I have written to Mahaut for EPOCASA wiki page

In terms of strategies:

- We agreed that high-top runs would be tested in Oslo for initialization of chemistry in prescribed SST runs
- High-top model needs some tuning, and Nour-Eddine can help with assessing model performance
- In Bergen (Mao-Lin, Shunya, Thomas, Teferi) we will begin work on full field initialisation, atmospheric nudging, and flux correction. We will use the low-top model using energy bug fix.
- In Bergen, more tests are ongoing with Yigou new approach to avoid the problems with neg DP, and with the NorESM1 version

Our next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, 2nd of October, from 13-15.